Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Both writes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
