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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple script. It often acts as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a direct line: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest improvement wins the prize. In reality, it creates an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or just the most shocking shock.

But this year's competition is fundamentally unique. The list of candidates is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with recent division winners falling away and longtime underperformers rising collectively. Under an typical year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this turbulent and entertaining year, he's competing with several other elite candidates.

This is how the projected vote ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of improvising. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to create big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Almost every decision – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the building with the immense pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But the current isn't a normal year!

The area where his candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for sustained winning. But Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a rapid resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which was not a certainty after his early public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and experience, Coen hired first-timers. From the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. But he has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

After an initial strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason setback caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has regressed after that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him just one spot ahead of peers.

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